The Great Experiment

Here is the reason this blog even exists. The final results of the great experiment to see how well I could pick the over-under for each NFL team's 2007 regular-season wins. Listed below is exactly how I picked them to finish, their predicted record and the number in parenthasis represents what Vegas listed as the over-under back in August. I'm giving myself the benefit of the doubt, because I would not have picked a team to push. Their actual record is in bold.

I predicted 18 right, 13 wrong and there was one (1) push -- San Diego with 11 wins. That comes out to .578. I was hoping for much better than 58%, but at least I still would have won some money. To break it down by conference, I went 10-5-1 in the AFC and 8-8 in the NFC.

I predicted 6 of the 12 playoff teams correctly and 5 of the 8 division champions: Dallas, Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis and San Diego. Pittsburgh is the other team I predicted to go to the playoffs but not to win their division.

NFC
East
*Dallas: 13-3 (9) 13-3 (correct)
*Philadelphia: 12-4 (9) 8-8 (incorrect)
NY Giants: 8-8 (8) 10-6 (correct)
Washington: 3-13 (7.5) 9-7 (incorrect)

North
*Green Bay: 8-8 (7.5) 13-3 (correct)
Chicago: 8-8 (10) 7-9 (correct)
Detroit: 8-8 (6) 7-9 (correct)
Minnesota: 4-12 (6.5) 8-8 (incorrect)

South
*New Orleans: 14-2 (9) 7-9 (incorrect)
Carolina: 5-11 (9) 7-9 (correct)
Tampa Bay: 3-13 (7) 9-7 (incorrect)
Atlanta: 1-15 (7.5) 4-12 (correct)

West
*San Francisco: 11-5 (8) 5-11 (incorrect)
*St. Louis: 11-5 (7.5) 3-13 (incorrect)
Seattle: 10-6 (9) 10-6 (correct)
Arizona: 5-11 (7.5) 8-8 (incorrect)

AFC
East
*New England: 13-3 (11.5) 16-0 (correct)
NY Jets: 7-9 (8) 4-12 (correct)
Buffalo: 5-11 (6) 7-9 (incorrect)
Miami: 3-13 (7.5) 1-15 (correct)

North
*Cincinnati: 12-4 (9) 7-9 (incorrect)
*Pittsburgh: 11-5 (9) 10-6 (correct)
Baltimore: 7-9 (9.5) 5-11 (correct)
Cleveland: 2-14 (6) 10-6 (incorrect)

South
*Indianapolis: 13-3 (10.5) 13-3 (correct)
*Houston: 9-7 (6.5) 8-8 (correct)
Tennessee: 8-8 (7) 10-6 (correct)
Jacksonville: 6-10 (9) 11-5 (incorrect)

West
*San Diego: 14-2 (11) 11-5 (push)
Kansas City: 9-7 (7.5) 4-12 (incorrect)
Denver: 6-10 (9.5) 7-9 (correct)
Oakland: 3-13 (5) 4-12 (correct)

Final Regular Season Tally

Even though I will keep picking through the playoffs, here's the final tally for my 2008 regular season picks:

Week 17
Straight Up: 13-3
Against the Spread: 10-5-1

For the season
Straight Up: 176-80 (.688)
Against the Spread: 139-108-9 (.561)

Week 17 Picks

Saturday, Dec. 29
New England (-14.5) at NY Giants -- NY to cover

Sunday, Dec. 30
Buffalo (+7.5) at Philadelphia -- BUF to cover
Carolina (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
Cincinnati (-3) at Miami
Dallas (+8.5) at Washington -- DAL to cover
Detroit (+3.5) at Green Bay
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Houston
New Orleans (-2.5) at Chicago
Pittsburgh (-4) at Baltimore
Seattle (+2.5) at Atlanta
San Francisco (+10) at Cleveland -- SF to cover
Tennessee (+6.5) at Indianapolis -- IND to cover
Minnesota (-3) at Denver
San Diego (-8) at Oakland
St. Louis (+6) at Arizona
Kansas City (+6) at NY Jets

Week 16 Results

Week 16
Straight Up: 13-3
Against the Spread: 12-4

For the Season
Straight Up: 163-77 (.679)
Against the Spread: 129-103-8 (.554)

Week 16 Picks

Thursday, Dec. 20
Pittsburgh (-8) at St. Louis

Saturday, Dec. 22
Dallas (-11) at Carolina

Sunday, Dec. 23
Cleveland (-3) at Cincinnati
Green Bay (-9) at Chicago -- CHI to cover
Houston (+7) at Indianapolis
Kansas City (+4.5) at Detroit
Miami (+22) at New England -- MIA to cover
NY Giants (-3) at Buffalo
Oakland (+13) at Jacksonville
Philadelphia (+3.5) at New Orleans
Atlanta (+10) at Arizona
Baltimore (+10) at Seattle
NY Jets (+9) at Tennessee
Tampa Bay (-7) at San Francisco
Washington (+6.5) at Minnesota -- WAS to cover

Monday, Dec. 24
Denver (+9) at San Diego

Week 15 Results

Week 15
Straight Up: 9-7
Against the Spread: 7-9

For the Season
Straight Up: 150-74 (.670)
Against the Spread: 117-99-8 (.540)

Interesting

I know Dallas Cowboys fans laugh at the Houston Texans and how terrible they are and how stupid of a draft pick Mario Williams was and on and on and on...

...but I prefer to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. The Cowboys are in their 48th season in the NFL, while the Texans are in their sixth.

Here are the Cowboys first six seasons in the NFL:

1960: 0-11-1
1961: 4-9-1
1962: 5-8-1
1963: 4-10
1964: 5-8-1
1965: 7-7 (made the playoffs for the first time)
Total: 25-53-4 (.329)

Here are the Texans' first six seasons in the NFL:

2002: 4-12
2003: 5-11
2004: 7-9
2005: 2-14
2006: 6-10
2007: 6-7
Total: 30-63 (.323)

Funny thing is, if the Texans win this week, they will have a nearly identical record as the Cowboys through their first six seasons. The Cowboys did not go to the Super Bowl until their 11th season and did not win one until their 13th, so the Texans are on the clock for the next five years.

Week 15 Picks

Thursday, Dec. 13
Denver (-1) at Houston

Sunday, Dec. 16
Cincinnati (-8.5) at San Francisco
Arizona (+4) at New Orleans
Atlanta (+13) at Tampa Bay
Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami
Buffalo (+5.5) at Cleveland
Green Bay (-9.5) at St. Louis
Jacksonville (+4) at Pittsburgh
New York Jets (+24.5) at New England
Seattle (-7) at Carolina
Tennessee (-4) at Kansas City
Indianapolis (-10.5) at Oakland
Detroit (+10.5) at San Diego -- DET to cover
Philadelphia (+10.5) at Dallas
Washington (+5) at New York Giants

Monday, Dec. 17
Chicago (+10) at Minnesota -- CHI to cover

Week 14 Results

Week 14
Straight Up: 13-3
Against the Spread: 11-5

For the season...
Straight Up: 141-67 (.678)
Against the Spread: 110-90-8 (.548)

Waiting for Something Exciting

I've been quiet here the past few weeks, because there's just not a whole lot for me to be excited about right this second. The Texans' injury problems have been out of control and have ruined what started out as a promising season -- now I'm just looking forward to the draft. The Rockets are 9-9 coming off a disappointing loss to the Kings. I'm going to give the Rockets a free pass for the rest of 2007. They have played the toughest schedule in the NBA so far and have a new coach, new system and virtually all of their bench players are new or playing different roles. However, 2008 is a different story. January and February are very favorable months on the Rockets' schedule and I look for them to make a significant move and improve dramatically.

The Astros were so bad this season and so many things are wrong with this team, I fear the problems cannot be fixed in one offseason. I don't think they have the bargaining power to pull off a deal for another starting pitcher and a closer. I think Chad Qualls is a great set-up man, but I don't see him as the answer. I would try to go after a closer before a starter, because I think out of Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Sampson, Matt Albers and Troy Patton, three of them will be able to step up and do a serviceable job. However, serviceable does not win divisions or compete for the wild card, especially when you've got a weak No. 2 in the rotation.

Now on to my last team. I was all for Baylor making a serious run at Mike Singletary as its next head football coach, but I was OK if Ian McCaw decided to go in another direction. Singletary's inexperience as a head coach was a red flag, but in Baylor's position I don't think it was much of a risk considering the rewards that would be reaped in recruiting and national media exposure. For whatever reason, the two sides could not get on the same page during the interview and I don't care what happened. I still respect Mike and I have more respect for Ian to go out and make a solid hire.

I am happy with the selection of Art Briles, but I'm not annointing him the savior just yet. The man did not become a major college football coach by being an idiot, so of course many people are going to have great things to say about him. You don't get a 100% raise after a terrible evaluation. Each job, whether it's coaching or something else, is it's own beast, and being the head football coach at Baylor is a lot different than being the the head football coach at the University of Houston. I believe Coach Briles is a terrific offensive mind and is the right man for the job, but he must have an outstanding defensive coordinator. There should be no excuses, because money will be no object for this position, and Baylor had a respectable group out there last year. Even though the scoreboard was tilted, you came blame a lot of that on offensive turnovers deep in its own territory, the inability of the offense to sustain drives and manage the clock and a poor kicking game.

Next year's schedule is tough, but if Briles is as good as advertised, it's not unbearable (no pun intended). The one thing that impresses me most about Briles is he doesn't consider next year any kind of rebuilding year or honeymoon year. He wants to get it turned around now, and he wants to win no matter what.

Significant dates for the Sports Guy's teams:
Jan. 5, 2008: The Rockets return home from a brutal two-game road trip to Boston and Orlando to begin a favorable stretch through the end of February.

Feb. 15, 2008: Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.

April 26, 2008: NFL Draft -- Texans picking 11th right now.

Aug. 30, 2008: Baylor vs. Wake Forest

Week 14 Picks

Thursday, Dec. 6
Chicago (+3) at Washington

Sunday, Dec. 9
Carolina (+11) at Jacksonville
Dallas (-11) at Detroit -- DET to cover
Miami (+7) at Buffalo
NY Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
Oakland (+10.5) at Green Bay
Pittsburgh (+11) at New England -- PIT to cover
San Diego (-1) at Tennessee
St. Louis (+6.5) at Cincinnati
Tampa Bay at Houston
Arizona (+7) at Seattle -- ARZ to cover
Minnesota (+8) at San Francisco
Cleveland (-3.5) at NY Jets
Kansas City (+6.5) at Denver
Indianapolis (-9.5) at Baltimore

Monday, Dec. 10
New Orleans (-5) at Atlanta

Week 13 Results

Week 13

Straight Up: 10-6
Against the Spread: 9-7

For the season...

Straight Up: 128-64 (.667)
Against the Spread: 99-85-8 (.537)