Week 4 Results

What a crappy week -- again. Here's where we stand before tonight's game:

WEEK 4
Straight Up: 7-7
Against the Spread: 7-7

SEASON
Straight Up : 40-22 (.645)
Against the Spread: 31-26-5 (.540)

Hey, at least I'm as good as Bill Simmons. And, at least I'm keeping up with the pace car. If you only picked the favorites in each game straight up, you would be 40-22. ESPN needs to find a place for me.

Week 2 Results

Week 2 did not get off to a good start with Tampa Bay, Cleveland and San Francisco pulling the upsets. I really didn't care, because the Texans won! (And that's all that ultimately matters.) However, TGP had a great recovery in the late games against the spread, picking three losing teams to cover: 5-1-1. What was with Vegas and the 9+ point spreads this week?

On a side note, the Chiefs covering the spread against the Bears was the most gratifying of all my picks this week. One of my friends, who is a huge Bears fan, said they would cover. They didn't and I was right. Here's hoping they have six more losses in them or I won't hear the end of it.

With one more game to go Monday, here are my results:

Straight up: 10-6

Against the spread: 9-6-1

For the season: 22-10 straight up; 18-11-3 vs. the spread

Week 2 Picks

Again, straight up picks in bold -- if losing team will cover noted at right

Sunday, Sept. 16
Buffalo (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
Cincinnati (-6.5) at Cleveland
Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee
Houston (+6.5) at Carolina
San Francisco (+3) at St. Louis
Green Bay (PK) at NY Giants
Atlanta (+10.5) at Jacksonville -- ATL to cover
New Orleans (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Minnesota (+3) at Detroit
Dallas (-3.5) at Miami
Seattle (-3) at Arizona
NY Jets (+10.5) at Baltimore -- NYJ to cover
Oakland (+9.5) at Denver -- OAK to cover
Kansas City (+12) at Chicago -- KC to cover
San Diego (+3.5) at New England

Monday, Sept. 17
Washington (+7) at Philadelphia

Week 1 Results

Not a bad start...

Straight up: 12-4 (missed Denver, Green Bay, Carolina and Tennessee)

Against the spread: 9-5-2

NFL Week 1 Picks

Here are my picks for Week 1. I will bold my straight up pick and note to the side if I think the losing team will cover the point spread.

Thursday, Sept. 6
New Orleans (+5.5) at Indianapolis

Sunday, Sept. 9
Philadelphia (-3) at Green Bay
Kansas City (+3) at Houston
Denver (-3.5) at Buffalo
Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cleveland
Carolina (+1) at St. Louis
Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota
New England (-6.5) at NY Jets -- NYJ to cover
Miami (+3) at Washington
Tennessee (+6.5) at Jacksonville -- TEN to cover
Chicago (+6) at San Diego
Tampa Bay (+6) at Seattle
Detroit (+2) at Oakland
NY Giants (+6) at Dallas -- NYG to cover

Monday, Sept. 10
Baltimore (+3) at Cincinnati
Arizona (+3) at San Francisco

NFL Preseason Predictions

I wanted to get my preseason predictions set in stone before the season, just so I can go back and look how I did at the end of the season. The main goal I want to accomplish is to see how the number of wins I predict for each team compares to the over/under in Las Vegas.

I predicted each regular season game, just so I'm not pulling numbers out of a hat. I had no preconceived thought as to what I wanted each team's record to be -- I just looked at each individual game and predicted what I thought might happen. It really takes into consideration each team's strength of schedule. I did go back at the end and change some of my picks because some teams I thought were too high and too low and would be able to pull out a win or snatch defeat from the jaws of victory every once in a while.

I'll be honest, I'm a Texans fan, so I have to believe in my team at this point. However, I also hate the Dallas Cowboys, so my prediction for them should restore some credibility to the picks.

Keep in mind I'm just seeing how I do compared to the over/under in Vegas, not necessarily trying to pick every team's record perfectly. If I get around 75% right, I will be pleased. Here we go:

2007 predicted record followed by over/under wins in parenthases provided by BetInternet. * denotes playoff team.



NFC
East
*Dallas: 13-3 (9)
*Philadelphia: 12-4 (9)
NY Giants: 8-8 (8)
Washington: 3-13 (7.5)

North
*Green Bay: 8-8 (7.5)
Chicago: 8-8 (10)
Detroit: 8-8 (6)
Minnesota: 4-12 (6.5)

South
*New Orleans: 14-2 (9)
Carolina: 5-11 (9)
Tampa Bay: 3-13 (7)
Atlanta: 1-15 (7.5)

West
*San Francisco: 11-5 (8)
*St. Louis: 11-5 (7.5)
Seattle: 10-6 (9)
Arizona: 5-11 (7.5)

AFC
East
*New England: 13-3 (11.5)
NY Jets: 7-9 (8)
Buffalo: 5-11 (6)
Miami: 3-13 (7.5)

North
*Cincinnati: 12-4 (9)
*Pittsburgh: 11-5 (9)
Baltimore: 7-9 (9.5)
Cleveland: 2-14 (6)

South
*Indianapolis: 13-3 (10.5)
*Houston: 9-7 (6.5)
Tennessee: 8-8 (7)
Jacksonville: 6-10 (9)

West
*San Diego: 14-2 (11)
Kansas City: 9-7 (7.5)
Denver: 6-10 (9.5)
Oakland: 3-13 (5)

Top Picks: Over - New Orleans. Under - Atlanta. Other picks I feel really good about: Washington (under), Dallas (over), Tampa Bay (under), Miami (under), Cleveland (under), Denver (under).

NFC Wild Card
St. Louis at Green Bay
Philadelphia at San Francisco

AFC Wild Card
Houston at Cincinnati
Pittsburgh at New England

NFC Divisional Round
St. Louis at New Orleans
Philadelphia at Dallas

AFC Divisional Round
Cincinnati at San Diego
New England at Indianapolis

NFC Championship Game
Philadelphia at New Orleans

AFC Championship Game
Indianapolis at San Diego

Super Bowl
New Orleans vs. San Diego

Champion
San Diego

Check back on my next blog for my complete Week 1 picks.