The Great Experiment

Here is the reason this blog even exists. The final results of the great experiment to see how well I could pick the over-under for each NFL team's 2007 regular-season wins. Listed below is exactly how I picked them to finish, their predicted record and the number in parenthasis represents what Vegas listed as the over-under back in August. I'm giving myself the benefit of the doubt, because I would not have picked a team to push. Their actual record is in bold.

I predicted 18 right, 13 wrong and there was one (1) push -- San Diego with 11 wins. That comes out to .578. I was hoping for much better than 58%, but at least I still would have won some money. To break it down by conference, I went 10-5-1 in the AFC and 8-8 in the NFC.

I predicted 6 of the 12 playoff teams correctly and 5 of the 8 division champions: Dallas, Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis and San Diego. Pittsburgh is the other team I predicted to go to the playoffs but not to win their division.

NFC
East
*Dallas: 13-3 (9) 13-3 (correct)
*Philadelphia: 12-4 (9) 8-8 (incorrect)
NY Giants: 8-8 (8) 10-6 (correct)
Washington: 3-13 (7.5) 9-7 (incorrect)

North
*Green Bay: 8-8 (7.5) 13-3 (correct)
Chicago: 8-8 (10) 7-9 (correct)
Detroit: 8-8 (6) 7-9 (correct)
Minnesota: 4-12 (6.5) 8-8 (incorrect)

South
*New Orleans: 14-2 (9) 7-9 (incorrect)
Carolina: 5-11 (9) 7-9 (correct)
Tampa Bay: 3-13 (7) 9-7 (incorrect)
Atlanta: 1-15 (7.5) 4-12 (correct)

West
*San Francisco: 11-5 (8) 5-11 (incorrect)
*St. Louis: 11-5 (7.5) 3-13 (incorrect)
Seattle: 10-6 (9) 10-6 (correct)
Arizona: 5-11 (7.5) 8-8 (incorrect)

AFC
East
*New England: 13-3 (11.5) 16-0 (correct)
NY Jets: 7-9 (8) 4-12 (correct)
Buffalo: 5-11 (6) 7-9 (incorrect)
Miami: 3-13 (7.5) 1-15 (correct)

North
*Cincinnati: 12-4 (9) 7-9 (incorrect)
*Pittsburgh: 11-5 (9) 10-6 (correct)
Baltimore: 7-9 (9.5) 5-11 (correct)
Cleveland: 2-14 (6) 10-6 (incorrect)

South
*Indianapolis: 13-3 (10.5) 13-3 (correct)
*Houston: 9-7 (6.5) 8-8 (correct)
Tennessee: 8-8 (7) 10-6 (correct)
Jacksonville: 6-10 (9) 11-5 (incorrect)

West
*San Diego: 14-2 (11) 11-5 (push)
Kansas City: 9-7 (7.5) 4-12 (incorrect)
Denver: 6-10 (9.5) 7-9 (correct)
Oakland: 3-13 (5) 4-12 (correct)

Interesting...

I was listening to Scott Van Pelt (the most revered and at the same time most hated sports personality in blogdom apparently) on ESPN Radio today and he and Kevin Schaffer were talking about how over the last five years, 30 of the 60 NFL playoff teams did not make the playoffs the year before. They kept asking (without answering, because they just didn't want to take a stab this early) which six teams are going to make the playoffs that did not make it the year before and which six playoff teams will not be back. Of course, this is on average over the last five years so it doesn't mean exactly six either way. Or does it?...

According to my preseason predictions, this is precisely correct:

Six 2006 playoff teams that will be back in 2007: Indianapolis, New England, San Diego, New Orleans, Dallas and Philadelphia.

Six new playoff teams in 2007: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Houston, Green Bay, San Francisco and St. Louis.

We'll see, but after last night I don't feel so good about the 49ers. I bought into it just like everyone else. I did not buy into the Ravens, though, and they showed just why I did not pick them to do well: they're old.